Absolute Sicherheit, dass die eigene Auffassung richtig ist, und politische Ideology

Eine interessante Studie:

The present investigation examined curvilinear relations between political ideology, on the one hand, and absolute certainty and dogmatism, on the other, across six online samples (N = 2,889). Ideological extremists were more likely than others to be absolutely certain: About one in three extremists reported being absolutely (i.e., 100%) certain of the correctness of their political beliefs, whereas about one in 15 non-extremists reported being absolutely certain. Although absolute political certainty was relatively symmetrical across the political left and right, conservatives tended to report greater domain-general dogmatism than liberals. Extremism effects for domain-general dogmatism were also present, however; and ideological asymmetries in dogmatism appeared to be driven by social, rather than economic, ideology. Taken together, these findings underscore the complexity of relations between absolute certainty, dogmatism, and ideology, ultimately challenging the sufficiency of contemporary psychological accounts of ideological (a)symmetries to describe our complex political reality.

Quelle: Absolute Certainty and Political Ideology: A Systematic Test of Curvilinearity

Aus der Studie:

Here, we leverage the concept of absolute belief certainty (Lewis, 1929) to arbitrate between the rigidity-of-the-right and ideological extremism hypotheses. Absolute certainty describes beliefs that are subjectively and objectively immune to doubt (Klein, 1992). From a Bayesian perspective, endorsing absolute certainty (i.e., a prior of 1) implies that one will not update their beliefs even when shown evidence to the contrary (see Tripp, 2018). Hence, absolute certainty epistemically diverges from all other gradations and “flavors” of certainty, closedmindedness, and dogmatism, which leave room for belief updating (Kahan, 2013). Moreover, the limits of deductive reasoning preclude absolute certainty (Johnson-Laird, 1999), such that  Prior tests of the rigidity-of-the-right have tended to subsume a host of loosely interrelated variables under the broad heading of rigidity, broadly spanning cognitive inflexibility, rigid cognitive styles, motivational rigidity, and dogmatic certitude (Costello et al., 2021). Here, we focus only on dogmatism, which may not bear meaningful relations with these other “flavors” of rigidity. absolute certainty seems to be necessarily unjustifiable and irrational2. Accordingly, absolute certainty might be considered the farthermost extremity of dogmatism (i.e., unjustified belief certainty; Altemeyer, 1996). Although it remains an open question whether this epistemic divergence between absolute belief certainty, on the one hand, and other kinds of belief certainty and dogmatism, on the other, reflects meaningful psychological variance, absolute certainty may have substantive psycho-political implications. Sir Karl Popper (1945) went so far as to argue that absolute certainty is the foundational component of totalitarianism: if one is sure that their political philosophy will lead to the best possible future for humankind, all manner of terrible acts become justifiable in service of the greater good.

Aus der Studie:

Danach wären also Extreme liberale eher nicht so sicher wie extreme konservative.
Ich habe leider nicht gefunden, welche konkreten Positionen abgefragt worden sind, finde das aber eigentlich eine der wichtigsten Fragen. Denn nur mit der Kenntnis der Fragen kann man schauen, inwiefern diese vergleichbar in ihrem „Extremismus“ sind.